I’m going to take a detour from the wonderful world of vagabonding and
look at investments.
You may be thinking, “Paul, you’re not a certified professional. How
could you possibly know about investing?” You’re right—I’m not a certified
professional, so I will emphatically say that my advice is merely based on my
25-plus years of investing my hard-earned money (and gaining the trust of my
wife, to invest her hard-earned funds). It’s based upon my having my fair share
of dogs and duds—and some went belly-up. It’s also based upon my fair share of
satisfactory stocks, and grand-slam homerun equities. And it really only
requires a handful of grand-slam stocks to get you to a point where you can
breathe a little easier—as long as you know when to step out and take that
breather.
And now we are in the midst of a “unique” scenario. We have an unpredictable
government in Washington and we are in the apex of a high-flying stock market.
Both pretty disconcerting, if you ask me. So why would I urge anyone to engage
in the stock market? Because it’s still better than the meager returns of bank
accounts. It’s not a replacement for a savings account (you still have to keep
about 6 months worth of savings in a money market or savings account… “just in
case”). It’s a complement. I invest via CapitalOne Investing—and I’ve done this
for close to 20 years (through its predecessor company, ShareBuilder). You can
reach CapitalOne here or here.
The good news about investing is that it is simple, if you pay
attention to the purpose: Buy the
company, not the hype. You are investing in an asset that you expect to
appreciate in value as time goes on. As legendary investor Peter Lynch said: “Never
invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon.” Another pearl of wisdom
from Lynch is, “If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be
able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand,
and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored.”
Like I said, it’s not complicated. If you can buy a house or an antique,
you can buy a stock.
To keep your eye on the prize, focus on three things as your North Star:
1. Taking a hint from Peter Lynch: K.I.S.S. (Keep it simple, stupid!). If you
can’t explain what the company does without turning your brain into a balloon
animal, then you’re asking for trouble; 2. Do all things in moderation; and 3. Run
away when the crowd runs in and run in when the crowd runs away.
So what do I mean by these three cryptic things? The first should be
pretty clear from my Peter Lynch reference. The second is, very simply put,
dipping your toe in the market through dollar-cost averaging. Start out with
one stable security that has seen a bunch of ups and downs. An easy one is
Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., B shares (BRK.B). The legendary Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, runs this company—which is
basically (for lack of a better term) one very large mutual fund. Note, that
Mr. Buffett, a wise man with a wicked sense of humor, does not issue dividends.
But that’s ok: the more a company invests in itself, the more likely it is to
appreciate in value. Another easy choice for monthly dividends is Realty IncomeCorp. (O), which calls itself “The Monthly
Divided Company”. Realty Income is what’s known as a Real Estate Investment
Trust (REIT). It purchases commercial real estate that is leased to tenants
under long-term lease agreements, generally 10-20 years. The lease payments
generated each month are used to support predictable monthly dividend payments
to their shareholders. Realty Income owns over 4,900 properties,
diversified with 248 commercial tenants operating in 47 industries,
located throughout 49 states and Puerto Rico. Realty Income issues monthly
dividends, which you may (and I highly recommend this) reinvest automatically;
while rates of return can change depending upon price fluctuation, O’s current
yield on an annualized basis is 4%, so if you think about this in comparison
with the average bank account, it’s a no-brainer!
Point of disclosure: I own both BRK.B and O in my portfolio, and I’ve
had them in my portfolio for about 15 years.
One last stock I would recommend for dipping your toe in the water is
Starbucks (SBUX), because I’m a coffee addict. And,
honestly, if you have never heard of Starbucks, I would question your take on
reality. The company’s dividend is on the low end (1.7%) but still better than
the earnings of a savings account. It is a company that has gone from mere food
and beverage service, to a veritable necessity among coffee generations, which
makes the likelihood of price appreciation in the long run (5+ years) pretty
strong. I’ve owned SBUX for 10 years, taken my profit once (meaning: I cashed
in stock that appreciated to the point that I took out my original dollar
investment and I still have a boatload of shares that are delivering dividends
and price appreciation; this illustrates the magic of dividend reinvestment and
dollar-cost averaging right there), and benefitted from a 2-for-1 stock split
(splits don’t generally change the value of the investment, but make it more
attractive for others in the market to purchase shares, thus pushing price
appreciation—supply and demand, my friends!).
That last point (Run away when the crowd runs in and run in when the
crowd runs away) is a contrarian viewpoint that is embraced by Warren Buffett.
The stock market relies on groupthink when we get to the heady highs that we’ve
experienced in the last couple of months. What can you expect from this? People
who shouldn’t be buying, are buying just because “everyone else is doing it.”
Take it from Mr. Buffett and your’s truly: be patient and buy at bargain
prices. I have a chunk of cash in my portfolio that is burning a hole in my
pocket, but right now, I’m not seeing anything that is floating my boat right
now. And, frankly, the irregularity of the current administration gives me
pause as well. That doesn’t mean you should NOT invest in the market now (this is
why I suggested the aforementioned BRK.B, O and SBUX), but when the “correction”
comes (and it will come--it could be a mild correction or a downright nasty
one; we don’t know until it happens, but they do happen), be ready to jump in
and buy more. This is what we mean by running away when others run in, and vice
versa.
I don’t plan to make this a regular feature, but as time goes on, I’ll
be sure to give some tips, hints and, God willing, the VERY RARE “don’t do this”
advice on investing.
One more thing: The lion’s share
of my investments are nestled in my IRA and Roth IRA accounts, so it ensures
that these are long-term investments. I recommend any high dividend investments
go into a tax-deferred investment, like an IRA or Roth IRA, so you don’t have
to pay taxes each year on your dividends. That doesn’t mean you should not have
stocks in a taxable account (I do), but a stock like BRK.B may be better suited
to a taxable account because of the tax advantages that capital gains have over
dividends.
And, while I would be as proud as anything to have your trust in my
advice, I would feel much better if you consult a certified professional and/or
do your own research. A good website to start you out on researching potential
investments is The Motley Fool.
It’s very accessible from a linguistic perspective—they speak “normal Joe or Jane”. And if you find you’re ready to harvest those gains, don’t forget
to pay your taxes and use a good program (or accountant) to help you do that!
Go ahead. Dip your toe in the market. Be aware, use your noggin, and
don’t go with the crowd (unless it’s part of a company’s successful business
model).
Peace and profit!
Postscript from 25 February: This article from Fortune online came out about my hero, Warren Buffett (link embedded), whose letter to shareholders was just published. He points out that his bet with a hedge fund manager worked to his advantage. The bet? $500,000 that his pick over a 10 year investment period--a Vanguard fund based on the S&P 500--would outperform a hedge fund manager's pick of 5 hedge funds of his choosing. Buffett won, and proceeded to eloquently slash and burn hedge fund managers' penchant for high fees and mediocre returns.
Postscript from 25 February: This article from Fortune online came out about my hero, Warren Buffett (link embedded), whose letter to shareholders was just published. He points out that his bet with a hedge fund manager worked to his advantage. The bet? $500,000 that his pick over a 10 year investment period--a Vanguard fund based on the S&P 500--would outperform a hedge fund manager's pick of 5 hedge funds of his choosing. Buffett won, and proceeded to eloquently slash and burn hedge fund managers' penchant for high fees and mediocre returns.